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Specials

Can Fed turn bonds yields at Jackson Hole? (3 min read)

By Bilal Hafeez | August 15, 2019

Bond yields across the world are falling to record lows. US 30 year treasury yields are at their all-time lows and flirting with the 2% threshold, German 10-year government yields have crossed below -0.6%, and remarkably, Spanish 10y yields are

Don’t cry for me Argentina…again? (2 min read)

By Miguel Ovalle | August 15, 2019

Apparently, the 25% correction in the ARS vs. the USD that we were expecting by the beginning of the week was not enough for the markets as some analysts and investors are now anticipating a first round victory for the Fernandez-Fernandez formula. The Argentine peso has lost approximately 40% in

Why QE Doesn’t Really work (4 min read)

By John Tierney | August 15, 2019

The ECB is signalling that it may resume Quantitative Easing (QE) via bond purchases. And there is growing speculation that other central banks including the Fed could follow suit. Meanwhile, a growing chorus of analysts including Macro Hive’s own Salomon

Best of the Web

The IMF’s Latest Victims (Project Syndicate, 3 min read)

August 16, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) Continuing our recent discussion of Argentina’s woes from our specials this week, we picked this piece by Jayati Ghosh, a Professor of Economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, who blames the International

Tracking Foreign Capital (Bank Underground, 4 min read)

August 16, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) A new paper by the Bank of England explores how foreign capital inflows specifically aimed at UK banks and financial institutions are channeled at home. Such flows can be large (they reached 100% of

Why we can’t just blame rising inequality for the growth of populism around the world (The Conversation, 4 min read)

August 16, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) Trump’s triumph is commonly attributed to the marginalised voters favouring his populism, fuelled by a rage against rising income inequality. This research by Brian Nolan, Professor of Social Policy at Oxford University,

China Digest from the Web

Smart home tech makes inroads into China’s emerging elderly care market (Reuters, 4 min read)

August 16, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) China, similarly to Japan and many Western countries, has an aging population and start-ups are waking up to huge market potential. With millennials too busy to look after their parents and retirement

Stimulus Prep or Prelude to Deflationary Crisis: China Tightening Screws on Real Estate (Investing in Chinese stocks, 4 min read)

August 16, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) Real estate prices are rallying due to loose buying restrictions in Chinese localities and Central Government stimulus. Meanwhile, credit has failed to flow to SMEs and other industries. But the situation may

Inside China’s vast influence network – how it works, and its reach in Australia (The Conversation, 4 min read)

August 16, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) Garry Groot, a Senior Lecturer in Chinese Studies at the University of Adelaide, outlines the little-known Chinese United Front Work Department within the Communist Party, designed to reach out to and influence

Podcasts

The Myth of Meritocracy (Weekly Economics Podcast, 29 mins)

August 13, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) With Boris Johnson making the 20th Prime Minister to have attended Eton (considered the most prestigious private school in the UK), concerns are heightening around stagnating social mobility and class privilege. Data

How Robots Will Feed Our On-Demand Culture (The Future of Everything by the WSJ, 14 mins)

August 13, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Nuro is a start-up aiming to bring autonomous vehicles into home delivery, and it’s backed a $1bn investment from Softbank’s Vision Fund. In this short interview, the founder, Dave Ferguson, who

Peak Energy, Peak Oil, and the Rise of Renewables: An Executive’s Guide to the Global Energy System (The McKinsey Podcast, 31 mins)

August 13, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) This podcast continues the discussion around oil that we initiated last week, with McKinsey Partners examining the deceleration in conventional energy demand. The composition of GDP is changing – services will overtake

Freshly Squeezed Working Papers

Improving the Phillips Curve with an Interaction Variable

May 7, 2019

Improving the Phillips Curve with an Interaction Variable San Fan Fed finds that modifying the Philips Curve with a multiplicative combination of lagged inflation and the lagged output gap better

The Contribution of Jump Signs and Activity to Forecasting Stock Price Volatility

April 30, 2019

From Dallas Fed: We document the forecasting gains achieved by incorporating measures of signed, finite and infinite jumps in forecasting the volatility of equity prices, using high-frequency data from 2000

What’s the issue with sentiment analysis?

April 30, 2019

Sentiment analysis is one of the most successful and widespread applications in natural language processing. However, for all the hype it has generated since its inception, there are still many issues

Investor Positioning

August 13, 2019

Forecasts: US 10y Yields

August 13, 2019

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