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Specials

England Finally Win the World Cup – Pound To Rally? (1 min read)

By Bilal | July 15, 2019

Football in 1966, rugby in 2003, and now cricket in 2019: at last England can add another year to its rather barren hall of fame with Sunday’s thrilling victory in the World Cup finals. Surprisingly, it’s their first since the

The Real Meaning of Deutsche Bank’s Decline (3 min read)

By Bilal | July 11, 2019

Having worked at Deutsche Bank for many years, I’m always tuned in to stories on it. And this week has been replete with them. Many focus on the announcement of dramatic staff cuts or the bank’s potential involvement in the scandal-hit

Big Tech Fraud Alert (4 min read)

By John Tierney | July 10, 2019

When it comes to Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google, and Microsoft – or the FAANG+M complex – most of us love (or at least can’t live without) their products. Yet their uncanny ability to track our behaviour online and their

Best of the Web

The Trump Tax Reform, As Seen in the U.S. Balance of Payments Data (Council on Foreign Relations, 8 min read)

July 11, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) The Trump tax reform was considered to be the formula that would allow the US to claim back trillions of dollars of trapped profits and make America a more manufacturing-competitive landscape. But

How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth? (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 5 min read)

July 11, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) While trend GDP growth in the US averaged 3.3% from 1950 to 2016, it has dropped to 1.7% since the 2000s. This article explores whether specific sectors are to blame. The authors

What is Fuelling the Global Revolt Against Democracy? (World Economic Forum, 3 min read)

July 11, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) The analysis finds that dissatisfaction with democracy is not related to a nation’s overall level of wealth and development. Rather, it is correlated with economic outlooks – the greater the economic pessimism,

China Digest from the Web

Revised Demographic Forecasts for China: Key Takeaways (The Economist Intelligence Unit, 5 min read)

July 11, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) Using the most comprehensive, once-a-decade national census of Chinese population in combination with periodic mini-census studies, the Economist provides a neat update on demographic changes in China. After a relaxation of the

Ursula von der Leyen Nominated to Lead European Commission – But Will She Be Tougher on China? (SCMP, 4 min read)

July 11, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) Beijing is concerned about the future Europe-China relationship after the surprise selection of von der Leyen to head the European Commission. She has clearly expressed a belief that China poses multiple threats

China’s Loans to Rest of the World Worth US$5 Trillion (6% of Global Economy), New Study Reveals (SCMP, 4 min read)

July 11, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) China has been lending a lot more in international markets than official numbers record. New estimates suggest that China’s lending to the rest of the world reached $5tn in 2018, a tenfold

Podcasts

Jeffry Frieden on the Rise of Populism, Labor Mobility, and the Eurozone (Macro Musings, 53 mins)

July 2, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) A wide ranging interview of Jeffry Frieden, Professor of Government at Harvard University, in which he discusses the intersection of politics and economics. The meat of the piece starts at 8

Entrepreneurs, Then and Now (A16z, 44 mins)

July 2, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) The founders of Andreessen Horowitz – a leading Silicon Valley venture capital fund – discuss the company’s history and their views for the future. Though many think tech is in a

Andrew Ang Discusses Asset Management (Masters in Business, 1hr 6 mins)

July 2, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Andrew Ang leads US asset manager Blackrock’s factor-based strategies group. At 8 minutes in he highlights some enduring trading strategies (or smart beta/factors) such as value, small cap, and quality. He

Freshly Squeezed Working Papers

Alternative Data to Generate Alpha (3 min read)

June 20, 2019

In recent years the availability of new alternative datasets for financial markets has expanded enormously, potentially giving investors an informational edge. These can range from consumer transaction data to satellite

Give Credit Where Credit Is Due: What Explains Corporate Bond Returns?

May 21, 2019

Give Credit Where Credit Is Due: What Explains Corporate Bond Returns? AQR paper finds finds that options markets explain a great deal of credit returns. Two features of corporate bonds

The Risk of Returning to the Zero Lower Bound

May 21, 2019

The Risk of Returning to the Zero Lower Bound San Fran Fed writes “that there currently appears to be a low risk of the economy returning to the zero lower bound

Investor Positioning

July 16, 2019

Forecasts: US 10y Yields

July 16, 2019

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