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Recession Risk? Not Yet, Says The Corporate Bond Market (3 min read)

By John Tierney | September 19, 2019

Calling the next recession has become a favourite parlour game for the talking-heads and pundits who opine on market matters. It’s understandable why, given the ongoing trade war, global slowdown, and persistent geopolitical uncertainties – and of course, let’s not

Central banks Need Engineers Not Economists! (3 min read)

By Gary Licht | September 18, 2019

Own goals from the ECB and FED this past week highlight yet another secular trend in the current paradigm shift: the rise of the engineer and the fall of the economist. While both deploy a mathematical toolkit, economists are ideologues

FOMC Preview: Easing for Markets Helps a Levered Economy (5 min read)

By George Goncalves | September 18, 2019

Since the July Fed rate cut of 25bps and the conclusion of its balance sheet roll-off (known as quantitative tightening, or QT for short), there have been many major markets moves. These include a massive duration rally and then a

Deep Dives

The Post-Globalisation Economic Model (4 min read)

September 11, 2019

  Dani Rodrick. Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2018), 336pp. Reviewed by Bilal Hafeez.   The Post-Globalisation Economic Model Harvard economist

Factor Premia: The Best Long-Term Investment Strategy? (5 min read)

September 11, 2019

The holy grail of financial market investing is to find investment or trading rules that consistently make money over time. And while no one has found a rule that always

Gamma, Gamma, Gamma: A Move after Midnight (6 min read)

September 11, 2019

Thorsten Roland Wegener spent twenty years trading equity derivatives and was a partner at Bear Stearns. Currently, he teaches as well as cooking, driving, and cleaning lots. His biggest professional

Best of the Web

Currency Wars and the Fall of Empires (Coppola Comment, 6 min read)

August 29, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) This in-depth piece by Frances Coppola, financial writer, explores and criticises James Rickards’ book Currency Wars. The book takes a largely American perspective, reviewing fiat currency over the last century. Coppola believes Rickard

Economists are Bad at Predicting Recessions (FiveThirtyEight, 4 min read)

August 29, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) Senior writer Amelia Thomson-Deveaux explores evidence from a recent study by Loungani et al. who looked at 153 recessions in 63 countries between 1992 and 2014 and found that the majority were

Dollars and Sense: The Sterling Depreciation and UK Price Competitiveness (Vox EU, 4 min read)

August 29, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) The large depreciation of the sterling by 12% following the Brexit referendum of 2016 yet to revert. This article discusses research from Giancarlo Corsetti, a Professor of Macroeconomics at Cambridge, which looks


Who Are Huawei? (The World of Business, 27 min listen)

July 2, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) An excellent profile of the Chinese tech company that includes a rare interview with its founder, Ren Zhengfei. Huawei originally started as an importer of tech but eventually turned into a

5 Podcasts Worth Listening To

June 25, 2019

State of the global economy (ANU Crawford Leadership Forum, 1hr 23min). Several good talks on at the forum. RBA governor Lowe speaks between minute 13 and 23. He’s not as pessimistic on the global growth as rates markets suggest, and he

5 Podcasts Worth Listening To

June 18, 2019

I’ve paired these podcasts to provide context for the recent HK protests. The first, Why Hong Kong Is Still Protesting (The Daily, 23 min), runs through the events that led to approximately one in seven Hong Kong residents protesting in

China Digest from the Web

How Exposed are U.S. Investors to China? (Seafarer Funds, 5 min read)

August 29, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) Nicholas Borst, Director of China Research at Seafarer, de-mystifies the actual positions that US investors hold in the Chinese capital markets. ‘Foreign Direct Investments’ (FDIs) into China have nearly doubled since March

China’s Hong Kong Dilemma (The New Yorker, 3 min read)

August 29, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) The protests and conflicts in Hong Kong have been escalating since they began in June. Being unable to find a mutually satisfying solution could have disastrous consequences for the Beijing government both

Flailing at China (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

August 29, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) Professor Stephen Roach discusses how changes in China’s economic policies shaped his course, ‘The Next China’, at Yale University. To address the ‘Four UNs’ (unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable) that may undermine

Investor Positioning

August 20, 2019

Forecasts: US 10y Yields

August 20, 2019

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