Markets have collapsed again. This time on the US announcement of a travel ban on Europe. I give my pessimistic view on the markets consequences of the pandemic inspired by Albert Camus’ The Plague. To balance this view, we have a more optimistic take from Domonique Dwor-Frecaut, where she discusses possible containment strategies.
We’re constantly trying find different market angles to COVID, so we feature commodities expert John Butler on what the virus means for silver. I didn’t realise this but silver may contain some antibacterial and antiviral properties.
Away from the virus we turn to US politics where Joe Biden’s latest wins leave him firmly in the top spot for the Democratic presidential nomination. Yet while most people know something about Sanders policies, less is known about Biden’s. Caroline Grady takes a look at his key policies. His view on tech is certainly not that centrist.
We also featured two Exclusives earlier this week which are still highly relevant. One from Russia expert Tatiana Orlova on Russia’s likely response to Saudi’s decision to trigger an oil price war. And Caroline Grady set out the ECB’s policy options ahead of the Governing Council decision earlier today. They didn’t cut rates but did announce several measures to make additional credit available.
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Markets have collapsed again. This time on the US announcement of a travel ban on Europe. I give my pessimistic view on the markets consequences of the pandemic inspired by Albert Camus’ The Plague. To balance this view, we have a more optimistic take from Domonique Dwor-Frecaut, where she discusses possible containment strategies.
We’re constantly trying find different market angles to COVID, so we feature commodities expert John Butler on what the virus means for silver. I didn’t realise this but silver may contain some antibacterial and antiviral properties.
Away from the virus we turn to US politics where Joe Biden’s latest wins leave him firmly in the top spot for the Democratic presidential nomination. Yet while most people know something about Sanders policies, less is known about Biden’s. Caroline Grady takes a look at his key policies. His view on tech is certainly not that centrist.
We also featured two Exclusives earlier this week which are still highly relevant. One from Russia expert Tatiana Orlova on Russia’s likely response to Saudi’s decision to trigger an oil price war. And Caroline Grady set out the ECB’s policy options ahead of the Governing Council decision earlier today. They didn’t cut rates but did announce several measures to make additional credit available.
Enjoy!
Bilal
Pandemics And Wars Always Find People Equally Unprepared (1 min read) “Public opinion is sacred: no panic, above all no panic”
“There have been as many plagues in the world as there have been wars, yet plagues and wars always find people equally unprepared”
Those are words from Albert Camus’ classic 1947 novel, The Plague. Frankly, it should be the book of our times.
It’s a reminder that something as primitive and ancient as viruses and bacteria can up-end any civilization, no matter how sophisticated. In current times, our dream was an age of exponential technological development, spouted especially by the Silicon-Valley utopianists. But we got the nightmare of an exponentially growing coronavirus instead.
(Bilal Hafeez | 12th March, 2020)
What’s Stopping Early COVID Intervention (3 min read) Implementing a worldwide, synchronized, two-week long strict quarantine could end the COVID-19 global pandemic. About 99% of infected individuals will show symptoms within the two weeks. Afterwards, healthy individuals could re-join the community, while sick ones would remain isolated until they stopped shedding the coronavirus. The quarantine would have a positive impact on the economy since it would be short, fully anticipated, and would restore confidence
The problem, of course, is that it’s completely unrealistic.
Such a high degree of cooperation is unfeasible because countries would have an incentive to freeride on their neighbours’ efforts. In practice, governments are likely to continue to act in an uncoordinated manner, which could prolong the epidemic…
(Dominique Dwor-Frecaut | 12th March, 2020)
Will Coronavirus Propel Silver Higher? (6 min read) In my recent series on gold, I provided an investment framework and valuation methodology based on the opportunity cost and demand function for gold as a form of insurance against the risks inherent in financial assets. Here, I extend this methodology to silver but also incorporate several other important factors specific to gold’s sister. In brief, the outlook for silver is strongly positive at present both vis-à-vis gold and base metals, and versus financial assets. One surprising reason could be the recent global COVID-19 scare…
(John Butler | 12th March, 2020)
Biden: A Moderate-ish Democrat (1 min read) Joe Biden has consolidated his lead in the race to win the Democratic presidential nomination. Tuesday’s wins in Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri and Idaho now leave Biden with close to 860 delegates (out of the 1991 needed to secure the nomination) versus around 710 for rival Bernie Sanders. With the former vice president now highly likely to be confirmed as the presidential candidate at the July convention, we look at his key policies:…
(Caroline Grady | 12th March, 2020)
Russia Preparing For Oil War (4 min read) The oil market is in free fall. Oil prices suffered some of their biggest falls on record on Monday after Saudi Arabia triggered a price war with Russia by increasing production and selling its crude at a discount. Last week’s OPEC+ meeting in Vienna unexpectedly ended with no agreement on further output cuts due to opposition from Russia. Russia is now battening down the hatches in the price war as the damage to the US shale industry plays out…
(Tatiana Orlova | 9th March, 2020)
ECB: Under Pressure To Act (3 min read) On Thursday Christine Lagarde will face her toughest test yet as ECB President. The emergency rate cuts from both the Fed and Bank of England significantly increased pressure on the ECB to act. But with monetary policy edging closer to its limit, it faces a difficult task. Lagarde must ensure that the remaining space is used wisely. A comprehensive package using all the tools at the ECB’s disposal seems the most likely option…
(Caroline Grady | 11th March, 2020)
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)