This week we are excited to bring you five exclusive pieces from our experts. John Tierney, a regular contributor on the hive, wraps up the whipsaw price action we saw in September. In light of last month’s repo market mayhem, he also writes a thought provoking piece on what realistic alternatives there could be to LIBOR as a benchmark rate.
Paul Lambert outlines his thoughts on Brexit and sterling as we head into what will be a tumultuous month for Brexit. Phil Suttle features again this week presenting an economic report card of Trump’s presidency so far – impeachment is not Trump’s only worry.
Finally, we feature Bobby Vedral’s tongue-in-cheek take on recent politics and how to trade October.
Enjoy!
This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.
(total reading time: 3 mins)
This week we are excited to bring you five exclusive pieces from our experts. John Tierney, a regular contributor on the hive, wraps up the whipsaw price action we saw in September. In light of last month’s repo market mayhem, he also writes a thought provoking piece on what realistic alternatives there could be to LIBOR as a benchmark rate.
Paul Lambert outlines his thoughts on Brexit and sterling as we head into what will be a tumultuous month for Brexit. Phil Suttle features again this week presenting an economic report card of Trump’s presidency so far – impeachment is not Trump’s only worry.
Finally, we feature Bobby Vedral’s tongue-in-cheek take on recent politics and how to trade October.
Enjoy!
What Investors Are Thinking: The September Scan (2 min read) John Tierney gives an insightful overview of markets in September – the overall satisfactory equity market performances, the raid on Saudi oil productions, and the possible causes for an idiosyncratic raise of the US repo rate. The month ended with lots of noise from political drama in the UK and the US and that’s poised to stay in October. (3rd October, 2019 │John Tierney)
Repo Market Re-Think: What About That New Benchmark? (4 min read) In the wake of the recent mayhem in the US repo market, John Tierney dives into alternatives for a benchmark index of the money market. LIBOR may have outlived its usefulness. In the headlong rush to create the perfect transaction-based overnight index, authorities have clearly lost sight of what the market requires of a benchmark. Will the flash crash cause investors and traders to pull back and rethink SOFR? (3rd October, 2019 │John Tierney)
Calm Before the Storm (4 min read) Paul Lambert examines Sterling’s underwhelming reactions to the Brexit upheaval. Was the chaos too predictable and already priced in or it’s simply that nothing much has changed in indicators, and no one knows when it will? If a hard Brexit is delivered and European regulators take services in a non-friendly direction for the UK, then further sterling weakness and volatility is likely to lie ahead. It might all just be calm before the storm. (3rd October, 2019 │Paul Lambert)
The Trump Presidency: An Economic Report Card (4 min read) Phil Suttle evaluates Trump’s odds of reelection in 2020 by contrasting US economic performance now vs under Obama’s second term. The results wind up being quite similar – economically, things were looking up for Trump until the trade war with China was started. Ending that (before too long) will be necessary, although maybe not sufficient, for the President to be re-elected. (3rd October, 2019 │Phil Suttle)
Macro Eagle’s September Review and The Big Picture (5 min read) Bobby Vedral gives his tongue-in-cheek take on politics. In the UK, Boris Johnson is, again, stuck between realising his Brexit schemes and settling the dissents from his parliamentary opponents. In the US, potential impeachments against President Donald Trump could be an add-on for Democrat Candidate Elizabeth Warren. As for how to trade October – lighten up on risk and cherish the IPO market rationality. Read till the end for a selection of the most entertaining moments in politics this month. (3rd October, 2019 │Bobby Vedral)