It’s Europe with the Recession Risk, Not the US (2 min read)

Despite all the talk of an imminent US recession, most estimates suggest US growth is comfortably in the 2% zone. Nowcast estimates have Q3 GDP growth ranging from 1.8% to 2.6%, and the consensus  forecast has it at 1.8% (see table). This follows the 2.1% print for Q2. On top of that, growth data surprises have been turning up for the US (second chart).

The picture for Europe is less positive: both the UK and Germany saw negative prints for Q2. And data surprises at least for the Euro-area have been heading down. So if there is vulnerability in the global economy, it appears to be showing up in Europe rather than the US.

Nowcasting estimates for US growth (q/q ar)

11

Growth data surprises

222

Bilal Hafeez is the Editor of Macro Hive and can be contacted here

 

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)

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