It’s Europe with the Recession Risk, Not the US (2 min read)
Despite all the talk of an imminent US recession, most estimates suggest US growth is comfortably in the 2% zone. Nowcast estimates have Q3 GDP growth ranging from 1.8% to 2.6%, and the consensus forecast has it at 1.8% (see table). This follows the 2.1% print for Q2. On top of that, growth data surprises have been turning up for the US (second chart).
The picture for Europe is less positive: both the UK and Germany saw negative prints for Q2. And data surprises at least for the Euro-area have been heading down. So if there is vulnerability in the global economy, it appears to be showing up in Europe rather than the US.
Nowcasting estimates for US growth (q/q ar)
Growth data surprises
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