During the initial phases of COVID, President Trump enjoyed his highest approval ratings since taking office. However, as the virus has spread and the economy has locked down, his approval ratings have started to fall (Chart 1). Recent polling shows that the majority of Americans, including Republicans, perceive the economy to be in recession.
This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.
During the initial phases of COVID, President Trump enjoyed his highest approval ratings since taking office. However, as the virus has spread and the economy has locked down, his approval ratings have started to fall (Chart 1). Recent polling shows that the majority of Americans, including Republicans, perceive the economy to be in recession. Therefore, the mood appears to have swung from rallying around a “war-time” President to now seeing the cost of a pandemic.
As for the November Presidential elections, prediction markets have Trump and Biden at 50:50 to win (Chart 2). These markets have swung around a lot, but now are likely to remain undecided during the coming weeks with COVID dominating.
Chart 1: Trump Approval Starting To Fall
Source: realclearpolitics, Macro Hive
Chart 2: Trump and Biden Odds of Winning Election are Tied
Source: Predictit, Macro Hive