President Trump appears to have stabilised his approval ratings after a drop from its highs (Chart 1). The rally in stocks may have helped, though the relationship between his approval and stocks isn’t perfect. Despite the approval bump, prediction markets are now seeing Biden beat Trump in the November elections (Chart 2)…
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President Trump appears to have stabilised his approval ratings after a drop from its highs (Chart 1). The rally in stocks may have helped, though the relationship between his approval and stocks isn’t perfect. Despite the approval bump, prediction markets are now seeing Biden beat Trump in the November elections (Chart 2). It’s probably too early to put too much weight on this, but markets may not take too kindly to a Democrat win – especially if it leads to more regulation and taxation of US tech companies.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
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