President Trump’s approval rating has remained largely stable in the past week and back within the range seen through most of 2018/19 (Chart 1). This could change in the coming weeks depending on whether the reopening of parts of the economy triggers another rise in COVID infection rates.
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President Trump’s approval rating has remained largely stable in the past week and back within the range seen through most of 2018/19 (Chart 1). This could change in the coming weeks depending on whether the reopening of parts of the economy triggers another rise in COVID infection rates. Prediction markets have also been relatively stable and continue to show Biden winning the November election (Chart 2). But the strength of the US recovery from Q3, and in particular the employment situation and the stock market, mean a lot can change before the vote.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
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