- In the DM world, Greece and the US saw 5%+ jumps in daily cases. Finland saw a 40%+ jump in deaths (nursing home related) while Sweden, Canada, NZ and Japan saw 7%-12% jumps in deaths. Most other countries are seeing much smaller increases in both measures.
- In the EM world, Singapore, Russia, Nigeria and Saudi all saw 10%+ jumps in cases. Meanwhile, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia, and Nigeria saw 10%+ jumps in deaths.
- As for our peak wave charts, these changes mean:
- In DM, Greece joins Finland, Sweden and Canada in the peak wave quadrant. Japan and the US have also edged into the quadrant, though we’ll see whether their situations worsen or not. Portugal and Belgium are the ones to watch for second waves.
- In EM, Nigeria, Russia and Pakistan are in the peak wave zone, while South Africa appears to be leaving that zone. Czech and Saudi are the ones to watch for second waves.
Chart 1: COVID Stages- DM Countries
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Chart 2: COVID Stages- EM Countries
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Table 1: Developed Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Table 2: Emerging and Newly Industrialised Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)