- Many countries appear to have passed the peak in the sense that they are seeing less daily cases and deaths than before. I thought a neat way of classifying countries in relation to the peak would be to look at quadrants of increasing/decreasing cases/deaths.
- The worst point or “peak wave” would be seeing increasing cases and deaths. Currently, Russia, Singapore, Saudi, Hungary and Indonesia stand out in that quadrant. The UK and Japan are also there (Chart 1).
- The “post-peak” would be seeing decreasing cases but still increasing deaths. This is just passed the peak. In this quadrant, we have US, Canada, Norway, Pakistan, Israel.
- The “declining wave” would be seeing less cases and less deaths. This quadrant has Australia, France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Korea and Switzerland
- Then we have the “new wave” which is where cases are increasing again while deaths are falling. China has just come into this quadrant with a new COVID outbreak near the Russian border. Sweden has also crept into the zone.
- These groupings are likely to change, as restrictions get lifted infections rise again. But the increase in China cases and the recent surge in Singapore shows that second waves are very likely.
Chart 1: COVID Stages
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Confirmed Cases
US States
Charts 2 & 3
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Developed Countries
Charts 4 & 5
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Emerging Countries
Charts 6 & 7
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Deaths
Developed Countries
Charts 8 & 9
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Emerging Countries
Charts 10 & 11
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Detailed Tables
US States
Table 1: US States: Key COVID-19 Stats
Developed Countries
Table 2: Developed Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Chart 12: Selected DM Countries: Daily Cases per 100,000 Population
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Emerging Countries
Table 3: Emerging and Newly Industrialised Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Chart 13: Selected Asian Countries: Daily Cases per 100,000
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)