• There’s more chatter that we have passed the peak. Wuhan will be lifting restrictions on people movement today, so that will be an important test to see what happens to infections as suppression measures are eased.
• Looking at daily cases per capita across the developed world, we find that Spain, Switzerland and Australia have seen marked declines over the past week (Chart 1). Germany, Italy and Norway also saw declines. Meanwhile, Japan, Singapore, UK and Canada saw marked increases. France, US and Sweden also saw increases. Iceland and NZ were more neutral.
• In terms of the broader stats – here are the highlights:
○ US states:
‣ Connecticut and Massachusetts reach Italy levels of cases per capita.
‣ NY and NJ see below 10% daily growth rates.
‣ Alaska sees a 55% jump in cases, while Delaware, Georgia, Kentucky and West Virginia see around 20% increases.
‣ At the other end, Illinois, Maine, New Hampshire, Utah and Wyoming see less than 5% growth rates.
‣ Meanwhile, there were large increases in deaths in Nevada (+57%), South Dakota (4 to 6), Kentucky (+44%), Missouri (+38%) and Penn (+38%).
○ DM: France saw an 11% increases in cases. All other DM countries are below 10% with US, UK, Japan, Sweden and Canada are in the 7%-8% daily growth camp. The rest are below 5%. However, Sweden continues to see big increases in deaths (+25%), its case fatality rate now stands at 7.7%.
○ EM: The recent hotspots appear to be Turkey, Russia, Indonesia, India, the Middle East and Latin America. The contained countries appear to be China, Korea, Taiwan, HK, Thailand, and South Africa.
Confirmed Cases
US States
Developed Countries
Emerging Countries
Deaths
Developed Countries
Emerging Countries
Detailed Tables
US States
Developed Countries
Emerging Countries
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)