- Belgium is experiencing an upturn in cases. The country’s weekly change in 3d moving average is 212%, the highest among countries with over 10,000 daily cases. From Wednesday, new stricter rules will apply, as the prime minister looks to avoid total lockdown.
- China records its largest single day rise in new COVID cases since March. The number has risen for five consecutive days, with the country recording 68 new cases yesterday.
- Cases in Singapore have now reached 50,000. This increase seems to be picking up pace, as both 3d and 10d moving averages are substantially higher than this time last week.
- India’s coronavirus crisis deepens as it recorded its highest number of new daily cases yesterday, again exceeding 49,000. Total cases are nearing 1.5m, or 104 cases per 100,000 people. The average in our sample is 341 cases per 100,000, which if India reaches, would amount to just under 5m cases.
- Changes in Australia’s 3d moving average flattened towards the end of last week and yesterday. Although the weekly change in 3d ma is 112%, there may be early signs that the number of new cases is slowing. New daily infections are at the same level (537 vs 532) as during the country’s first wave.
- Argentina has recorded a large number of new daily cases. At 10 new cases per 100,000 people only Chile, South Africa, Israel, Brazil and the US have more. In terms of deaths, Brazil, South Africa, Chile and Colombia are recording the highest daily increases per 100k.
- A number of countries have seen a jump in their 3d moving averages. The UK and the Netherlands experienced daily 3d ma growth in excess of 60%. This may have been influenced by weekend reporting, however, the scale of the rises do not follow patterns of previous weeks.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Sam van de Schootbrugge is a macro research economist taking a one year industrial break from his Ph.D. in Economics. He has 2 years of experience working in government and has an MPhil degree in Economic Research from the University of Cambridge. His research expertise are in international finance, macroeconomics and fiscal policy.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)