In the DM world, we see small surges today compared to yesterday’s values with UK, Sweden, and Finland registering 3% case increases. They are followed by US, France, Portugal, and Canada which recorded 2%. Others barely saw any increases. On deaths, Germany, Belgium, and Canada lead with 4% increases, while US, Sweden, and Ireland come next at 3%.
In the EM world, Brazil leads today with a 9% increase in cases, followed by India, Pakistan, Russia, and Nigeria at 7%. Saudi Arabia and Mexico also saw 6% jumps. Regionally speaking, Latin America still remains under the most pressure, along with the Persian Gulf countries. On deaths, Singapore stands out today with an 11% increase, followed by UAE, Brazil, and Mexico at 8%. Pakistan and Russia also saw 7% and 6% jumps, respectively.
As for the peak wave charts, those changes mean:
- In DM, there seem to be no peak wave countries today. However, we have more potential new wavers than yesterday. Among them is Australia which consolidates its position, followed by UK and Portugal. The post-peak contenders are Japan, Canada, and Belgium. All other countries find themselves in the declining wave category.
- In EM, India has today’s peak wave pole position, followed by Pakistan, Indonesia, South Africa, Nigeria, and Saudi Arabia. In terms of new wave contenders, we have Egypt which consolidates its position, followed by Chile, Philippines, and Iran. On the post-peak side, we have Hungary as the only visible contender while in the declining wave there is Thailand, Turkey and Israel. Most other countries seem to be on the border between different quadrants and we are closely monitoring their evolutions.
We’ve recently introduced a new set of charts which look at the level of recent daily cases and deaths rather than changes (as we do above). This would get around the issue of countries seeing big jumps from low levels, which may not necessarily warrant attention (eg Australia). On this metric, we find the following:
- In DM, the situation remains fairly similar to yesterday and we see that Belgium, Sweden, UK, US, Ireland, and Canada have the highest per capita number of cases and deaths. They are followed by Italy, France, Spain, Netherlands, and Finland. What stands out, however, is that all those countries (apart from Belgium) have migrated towards higher values of cases per capita. We will be monitoring this evolution.
- In EM, we see again both more clustering and more polarization. There tend to be either many cases and little to no deaths or many deaths and little to no cases. Brazil remains the most affected in terms of deaths and Singapore the most affected in terms of cases. UAE, Turkey and Iran are the only countries which remained on the more middle trajectory (more similar to the DM counterparts) while Russia and Chile have slightly moved towards increased values of cases per capita.
Chart 1: DM COVID Stages
Chart 2: EM: COVID Stages
Chart 3: DM: COVID – Cases and Deaths (3-Day Moving Average)
Chart 4: EM: COVID – Cases and Deaths (3-Day Moving Average)
Table 1: Developed Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Table 2: Emerging and Newly Industrialised Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Stefan Posea is a Research Analyst at Macro Hive. His research interests lie in macro-financial interactions and monetary policy analysis. Stefan graduated with an MSc in Economics at Birkbeck, University of London and previously held roles in M&A and the Public Sector.
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