In the DM world, US, UK, Canada, Denmark, Finland, and Sweden saw small 2% increases in daily cases. Others barely saw any increases. On deaths, Canada, New Zealand and Japan stood out with 4%-5% increases on the day.
In the EM world, Colombia leads with an 8% increase in cases, followed by Brazil, Chile, and Russia at 7%. India, Egypt, Saudi Arabia also saw 6% jumps. Regionally speaking, Latin America appears under most pressure. On deaths, Mexico leads with a 10% increase, followed by Brazil, India, and Pakistan with 8%. Russia, South Africa, and UAE also saw 7% jumps
As for the peak wave charts, those changes mean:
- In DM, Japan and Australia keep their pole positions in today’s peak wave and new wave quadrant, respectively. On the other hand, today’s post-peak wave contenders are Sweden and Netherlands. Most other countries are either in the declining wave or just transitioning from post-peak to declining wave.
- In EM, South Africa has the peak wave’s pole position, followed at a distance by countries like India, Malaysia, Pakistan, Russia, Nigeria, and Saudi Arabia. New wave contenders are Indonesia, Poland, and Egypt. On the post-peak side, we have South Korea as the only visible contender while in the declining wave there are Singapore, Turkey and Israel. Most other countries seem to be on the border between different quadrants and we are closely monitoring their evolutions.
We’ve also introduced a new set of charts which look at the level of recent daily cases and deaths rather than changes (as we do above). This would get around the issue of countries seeing big jumps from low levels, which may not necessarily warrant attention (e.g. Australia). On this metric, we find the following:
- In DM, we see that Belgium, Sweden, UK, US, Ireland, and Canada have the highest per capita recent number of cases and deaths. They are followed by Italy, France, Spain, Netherlands, and Finland.
- In EM, we see both more clustering and more polarization. There tend to be either many cases and little to no deaths or many deaths and little to no cases. At the moment, Brazil particularly stands out as the most affected in terms of deaths. It is followed by Mexico, Hungary, Iran, and Turkey. On the middle trajectory (more similar to the DM counterparts) we find Chile, Russia, and UAE. Singapore stands out in terms of cases, followed at a distance by Saudi Arabia.
Chart 1: DM COVID Stages
Chart 2: EM: COVID Stages
Chart 3: DM: COVID – Cases and Deaths (3-Day Moving Average)
Chart 4: EM: COVID – Cases and Deaths (3-Day Moving Average)
Table 1: Developed Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Table 2: Emerging and Newly Industrialised Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Stefan Posea is a Research Analyst at Macro Hive. His research interests lie in macro-financial interactions and monetary policy analysis. Stefan graduated with an MSc in Economics at Birkbeck, University of London and previously held roles in M&A and the Public Sector.
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