In the DM world, US, UK, Canada, Denmark, and Sweden saw a small 2% increase in cases. Others barely saw any increases. On reported deaths, Japan stands out with a 10% increase, which could partly be due to structural healthcare problems. It is followed by Canada at 6% and Finland at 4%.
In the EM world, Nigeria leads with a 10% increase in cases. India and Russia come next with 9% and 8%, respectively. Singapore saw a 3% increase. Regionally speaking, our heat map points out to the Persian Gulf and Latin American countries as potential new clusters of cases. On deaths, India leads with a 13% increase, followed by UAE at 9% and Nigeria at 7%.
As for the peak wave charts, those changes mean:
- In DM, Japan takes the pole position in today’s peak wave category while Australia consolidates its previous jump in cases and is currently a strong new wave contender. On the other hand, we have Denmark as the only country with a visible post-peak status. Most other countries are either in the declining wave or just transitioning from post-peak to declining wave.
- In EM, while the clustering observed yesterday still remains in place, we clearly see Egypt and Indonesia as a new wave contender. While Taiwan (not on the graph) and Malaysia showed big weekly changes of 800% and 120% increases in cases, those numbers are most likely due to the imported cases they have received in the past days. In the peak wave quadrant, we find Chile, South Africa, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, and UAE. Turkey seems to be heading towards a post peak wave, while China, South Korea, Hong Kong, Israel, and Thailand are found just on the border between post-peak and declining wave.
Chart 1: DM COVID Stages
Chart 2: EM: COVID Stages
Table 1: Developed Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Table 2: Emerging and Newly Industrialised Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Stefan Posea is a Research Analyst at Macro Hive. His research interests lie in macro-financial interactions and monetary policy analysis. Stefan graduated with an MSc in Economics at Birkbeck, University of London and previously held roles in M&A and the Public Sector.
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