In the DM world, cases continue to increase only at a moderate pace of less than 5%. Yesterday, Finland saw the largest daily increase in cases of 4%, while US, UK, Canada, and Sweden registered 3% increases. On COVID deaths, the UK saw a huge jump of 20%, which was due to including deaths in all settings not just hospitals. Elsewhere, Canada, Japan and Sweden saw deaths increase 5%-6%.
In the EM world, Nigeria continues to lead new cases – this time with a 13% increase. Brazil came next at 9%, followed by Saudi Arabia and South Africa at 7%. Singapore, which currently ranks among the lowest in the Mobility stats, registers a 5% increase. On deaths, Nigeria also tops the list with a 16% daily increase, followed by Russia at 12%. Pakistan, UAE and Mexico come next at 10%, while Brazil (one the main peak wave countries) had 8%.
As for our peak wave charts, those changes mean:
- In DM, there are no countries in the peak wave quadrant. However, France and possibly Spain are seeing a new wave of cases. Meanwhile, the UK, Australia and US are in the post-peak quadrant. The rest of DM is the declining wave quadrant.
- In EM, all the major Latin American economies are either seeing peak waves or new waves.
- Brazil leads the peak wave quadrant for a second day in a row, followed by Nigeria, India, Philippines, Pakistan, South Africa, Russia, Egypt, Mexico, Colombia, and Poland.
- Among the potential new wavers, we need to monitor Malaysia, Argentina, Chile, and Indonesia.
- Post-peak wave quadrant features Singapore and Thailand, with UAE also trending towards this status.
- The declining wave contenders are Czech Republic, Turkey, Israel, Hungary, and Iran.
Chart 1: DM COVID Stages
Chart 2: EM COVID Stages
Table 1: Developed Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Table 2: Emerging and Newly Industrialised Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Stefan Posea is a Research Analyst at Macro Hive. His research interests lie in macro-financial interactions and monetary policy analysis. Stefan graduated with an MSc in Economics at Birkbeck, University of London and previously held roles in M&A and the Public Sector.
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