In the DM world, Ireland and Canada saw 4%+ jumps in daily cases, while US, UK and Sweden had 3%+. For deaths, we have New Zealand with a 6%+ increase (highest value today), followed by Canada and Australia at 4%+.
In the EM world, Russia tops in the daily cases rankings, with a 9% increase. It is followed by Nigeria and Saudi Arabia at 8%+. Most other countries are below 5%. With the exception of Singapore (7%+), none of the formerly known Asian Tigers have increased cases (0%). For deaths, we have Nigeria with the highest increase at 14%+, followed by Russia at 10%+. India and UAE come next at 7%+.
As for the peak wave charts, those changes mean:
- In DM, we have Greece as the only country in the peak wave chart. Portugal, US and Sweden are just edging into the new wave quadrant so they may be the ones to watch for second waves. In the declining wave quadrant, we have Japan, Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Switzerland, Belgium, Austria, Norway, Denmark, and Finland. In the post-peak wave, we have Ireland, New Zealand and Canada.
- In EM, we have UAE as the most affected country right now. Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico are also in a tough position, followed by Saudi Arabia, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa and Nigeria. In the declining wave quadrant, we see South Korea, Malaysia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Turkey, Iran and Israel. The new wave quadrant features Egypt, Colombia and Chile. The post-peak wave currently includes Poland, with some other countries like China, Hong Kong and Taiwan being just on the edge.
Chart 1: DM COVID Stages
Chart 2: EM COVID Stages
Table 1: Developed Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Table 2: Emerging and Newly Industrialised Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)