There were no major changes in the DM world. However, in EM, Russia, South Africa, and Nigeria saw a 6% increase in cases. While Taiwan saw a big jump in deaths (17% from a low base).
As for where countries are in terms of peak waves – we look at it in two ways. One in terms of levels of daily cases/deaths and the other in terms of changes in daily cases/deaths
• On levels, we look at what percentile the latest daily cases/deaths are. If it is in the 100th percentile, that means current levels are at the highest levels in the country’s history. On this metric, we find the following:
○ In DM, Japan remains a strong peak wave contender and takes today’s pole position. Sweden, UK and US remain in this quadrant as well. With the exception of Canada which might be signalling a potential new wave, most other DM countries are seeing relatively low cases and deaths.
○ In EM, there is again a large group of countries recording peak levels of both cases and deaths. These include: India, Russia, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, and Argentina. At the other end of the spectrum China, Hong Kong, and Czech Republic are seeing their lowest levels of cases and deaths.
• We also look at the weekly change in cases/deaths. This allows us to more quickly capture new waves or declining waves. The downside is that it can be more noisy. Here’s the latest:
○ In DM, we have another day with no country in the peak wave quadrant. A potential new wave contender could be Australia, which we will monitor in the next days. The only post peak contender is Norway, while Canada, New Zealand and Iceland seem to be on the border between post-peak wave and declining wave.
○ In EM, Korea is seeing a notable jump in case as are Chile and Argentina. Meanwhile, Brazil, Mexico, India, and Russia are in their peak waves.
Chart 1: DM: COVID – Percentile (Daily Cases/Deaths)
Chart 2: EM: COVID – Percentile (Daily Cases/Deaths)
Chart 3: DM: COVID Stages – (Changes in Daily Cases/Deaths)
Chart 4: EM: COVID Stages – (Changes in Daily Cases/Deaths)
Table 1: Developed Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Table 2: Emerging and Newly Industrialised Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Stefan Posea is a Research Analyst at Macro Hive. His research interests lie in macro-financial interactions and monetary policy analysis. Stefan graduated with an MSc in Economics at Birkbeck, University of London and previously held roles in M&A and the Public Sector.
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