Fiscal Policy | Global | Monetary Policy & Inflation | Politics & Geopolitics
We’ve finally entered a decade we can give a proper name to – the twenties. And we’ll soon see whether or not it will be roaring because 2020 is packed with events that could set the tone for the whole decade.
The most followed event has to be the US presidential election (3 Nov) – current polling and prediction markets are mixed on who will win. But we also have other important elections, too. The assassination of Iran’s Soleimani will bring Iran’s election (21 Feb) to the fore. Taiwan’s (11 Jan) could have significant geopolitical consequences, while a potential one in Germany could alter the course of the EU…
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We’ve finally entered a decade we can give a proper name to – the twenties. And we’ll soon see whether or not it will be roaring because 2020 is packed with events that could set the tone for the whole decade.
The most followed event has to be the US presidential election (3 Nov) – current polling and prediction markets are mixed on who will win. But we also have other important elections, too. The assassination of Iran’s Soleimani will bring Iran’s election (21 Feb) to the fore. Taiwan’s (11 Jan) could have significant geopolitical consequences, while a potential one in Germany could alter the course of the EU.
2020 will also see numerous trade events, from a possible US-China phase one trade deal to an ongoing tech war between the two nations. And we’ll have the drama of UK-EU trade negotiations that will likely come to a head around the EU summits.
Outside of politics, both the Fed and ECB will release their new monetary policy frameworks. Chinese bonds will be added to JPM bond indices and Bitcoin will have a halving event. We’ll also see numerous Mars missions from the US, China, EU, and UAE. And China will complete its rival system to the US’s GPS positioning network.
On a more general note, 2020 will see some important anniversaries: the bursting of the South Sea Bubble (300 years) and Dot-Com Bubble (20 years), Beethoven’s birth (250 years), the end of World War Two (75 years), and the creation of WTO (25 years). And we can’t forget about the Euro 2020 football championships, Tokyo Olympics, and T20 cricket world cup. Finally, on the entertainment side, Marvel will launch its Phase 4 movies (Black Widow and Eternals), we get Daniel Craig’s possible last Bond movie, and Tom Cruise reprises Top Gun.
I feature all this and more in a detailed calendar of events for 2020.
Macro Hive Guide to the Key Macro Events of 2020
Table 1: US Politics
Table 2: Rest of World Elections
Table 3: China
Table 4: General Economic and Market
Table 5: Global Trade and Summits
Table 6: Military, Space and Tech
Table 7: Sport
Table 8: Anniversaries
Table 9: Film
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)