We look at which countries have the strictest lockdowns, and using mobility data we track which countries have followed the lockdowns most closely
We find that Nordics and East Asia have the most lax lockdown rules, while Europe, Middle East and Africa have the strictest rules
Comparing actual mobility to lockdown rules, we find Turkey, Spain and Argentina the most obedient countries, while Germany, Poland Sweden are the least.
In this column, we take a closer look lockdown rules and mobility. This is especially important as governments start to ease them. Starting with lockdown policy, we quantify how strict stringency rules are. A good resource for lockdown rules is the University of Oxford’s Stringency Indices, which quantify the degree of lockdowns (e.g. workplace restrictions, school closures and public gathering bans) into an index. A score of 100 would mean the most extreme lockdown, while zero would mean no restrictions.
This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.
- We look at which countries have the strictest lockdowns, and using mobility data we track which countries have followed the lockdowns most closely
- We find that Nordics and East Asia have the most lax lockdown rules, while Europe, Middle East and Africa have the strictest rules
- Comparing actual mobility to lockdown rules, we find Turkey, Spain and Argentina the most obedient countries, while Germany, Poland Sweden are the least.
In this column, we take a closer look lockdown rules and mobility. This is especially important as governments start to ease them. Starting with lockdown policy, we quantify how strict stringency rules are. A good resource for lockdown rules is the University of Oxford’s Stringency Indices, which quantify the degree of lockdowns (e.g. workplace restrictions, school closures and public gathering bans) into an index. A score of 100 would mean the most extreme lockdown, while zero would mean no restrictions.
East Asia and Nordics Have Lax Lockdown Rules, While Europe, the Middle East, and Africa Are Strict (Chart 1).
Looking at individual countries, we find that New Zealand, Croatia, Italy, the Philippines, and Portugal have the strictest lockdowns, while Iran, Taiwan, Nigeria, Denmark and Australia have the laxest lockdowns (Chart 2). Of course, many of these values will start to change in the coming weeks, as many countries have discussed lifting parts of their lockdowns. We aim to track these changes.
Perhaps more intriguing, though, is how these restrictions affect people’s behaviour. In theory, you’d expect people to be moving around less – they aren’t going to work or going shopping (outside of groceries), which is important since mobility is associated with economic activity. And we can confirm the link between lockdown restrictions and mobility using data from Google and Apple.
Chart 1: Lockdown Stringency: East Asia and Nordics Most Lax
Chart 2: NZ, Croatia, Italy Strictest Lockdown, Iran, Taiwan, Nigeria Most Lax Lockdown
Starting with Google data, we combine mobility around retail/recreation, transit and workplace movements into an overall mobility measure. We look at how much this measure has declined since the pre-COVID period and compare it to the latest stringency scores. As expected, we find that in general, the stricter the lockdown, the less mobile people are (Chart 3).
Obedience to Rules is Highest in Turkey, Spain and Argentina, and Lowest in Germany and Sweden.
However, there is large variation around the trend. For example, countries like South Korea, the Netherlands, Hong Kong, Egypt and Hungary are seeing much more mobility than would be expected given their levels of lockdown. At the other end, Turkey, Serbia, Malaysia, Spain and Nigeria are seeing much less mobility given their levels of lockdown. So, it seems that the Koreans and Dutch (for example) are perhaps less obedient to lockdown measures, while the Turks and Serbs (for example) are more obedient.
We also use an alternative mobility dataset, Apple’s driving data. This data features some countries not covered by Google, such as Russia. Again, we find the expected downward slope, which implies less activity as stringency goes up (Chart 4). We also see much variation around the trend.
Some outliers overlap with the Google data. For example, Norway, Sweden, Germany, and Poland are seeing more mobility than would be expected, which suggests less obedience to rules (Table 1). Meanwhile, Turkey, Spain, Argentina, Luxembourg and Chile are seeing less mobility than expected, which suggests more obedience to rules.
However, there are some disagreements between the two datasets. Apple data seems to suggest Korea’s mobility is less than expected, while Malaysia’s is more – these are in opposition to the Google results.
Need to Track Changes in Lockdown Restrictions AND Mobility
In the end, it appears we will need to monitor not only the lifting of lockdown measures (e.g. the stringency index), but also a range of mobility measures (e.g. Apple and Google). The first would give us a sense of what should be happening, while the latter tells us what is happening. We aim to track all of these measures in addition to our regular COVID tracker.
Chart 3: Countries Obey Lockdown Rules Differently (Google Mobility)
Chart 4: Countries Obey Lockdown Rules Differently (Apple Mobility)
Tables 1 & 2
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)