In this prime tracker, we will keep you up-to-date with the latest vaccination developments globally. This week, we’ve added Thailand to the list. The country began vaccinating at the start of March using the Oxford/AstraZeneca and Sinovac vaccines. On the details:
Global Outlook (Chart 1):
- This week, an average of 10.5mn vaccinations were administered globally every day, up 6% WoW (Table 1 columns 6 & 7, Chart 1). In all, 3.5% of the world’s population have now received at least one vaccination dose, up from 2.9% last week, and an estimated 2% have vaccine-induced Covid-19 immunity (Table 1 columns 2, 3 & 8).
Share of Population Vaccinated (Table 1 columns 2-5, Chart 2):
- An additional 5.2% of the UK’s population has been vaccinated over the last week – the highest on our list. In total, 41.2% have received at least one dose, of which 3.4% are fully vaccinated according to the manufacturer protocol (two doses for most vaccines).
- The share of the US’s and Canada’s populations that have received at least one dose are up 3.5ppt and 2.4ppt WoW, respectively (column 3). This strong weekly performance has moved North America further ahead of other continents in terms of population shares vaccinated (Chart 2).
- Chile continues to vaccinate at a relatively quick pace. This week, the population share fully vaccinated (column 5) rose from 10.7% to 15.6%, the largest WoW rise on the list. The move indicates a push towards administering second doses over the past week.
Doses (Table 1 columns 6-7, Charts 3 & 4):
- Daily vaccination rates across DM economies have fallen significantly on last week – an estimated 350 people per 100k population received a vaccine every day, down 12% WoW (Chart 3). The drop was driven by a 20% fall in daily vaccination rates across the EU. The UK, on the other hand, experienced a 66% rise in average daily doses, bettered only by Singapore and Hong Kong. At 600,000 doses a day, only the US, EU and India have administered more doses this week. On a population-adjusted basis, the UK surpasses all of those countries, including the US (Chart 4).
- Meanwhile, Asian countries experienced a 53% WoW rise in daily vaccination doses administered. Singapore and Hong Kong led the way, with 110% and 70% WoW increases, although India saw average daily doses rise from 1.5mn to 2.2mn over the last week. On the other hand, South Korea and the Philippines experienced 64% and 30% WoW declines, respectively. Overall, an estimated 120 people per 100k population now receive a vaccination dose every day across Asia.
- Lastly, daily vaccination rates across EMEA countries rose 17.5% WoW. This rise was heavily skewed towards Turkey, while Poland, Israel and Russia experienced large WoW declines. Across LATAM countries, daily vaccination rates fell 5% WoW. Brazil was the only country that managed to increase average daily doses, while Colombia saw the largest WoW fall.
Immunity (Table 1 columns 8-11):
- Immunity is gained either via the vaccine or via contracting the virus. Currently, Israel has the highest population share with immunity from both avenues (64.2%). However, for the first time, the UK is set to reach 80% immunity before Israel, following the large rise in vaccination rates over the last week. Although unlikely to continue at the same pace, at current rates the UK will achieve the 80% target by May 2021.
- Many European countries are entering a third wave, and the Czech Republic stands out as having the largest share of its population with immunity from contracting Covid-19 over the last six months (16.6%). For many countries towards the bottom end of the list, vaccine-induced immunity is lower than immunity from Covid-19 transmission. Following a slowing down in vaccination rates across the EU over the last week, the 80% target is now forecast to be reached in August 2022.
Sam van de Schootbrugge is a macro research economist taking a one year industrial break from his Ph.D. in Economics. He has 2 years of experience working in government and has an MPhil degree in Economic Research from the University of Cambridge. His research expertise are in international finance, macroeconomics and fiscal policy.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)