In this prime tracker, we will keep you up-to-date with the latest global vaccine developments. This week, we’ve added more detail on doses and immunity to our table, and reviewed DM vs EM vaccination rollouts. Specifically, we added the daily number of doses over a 7d average and the WoW change in that metric. On immunity, we included the share of the population that has tested positive for the virus over the last six months to give a better indication of total immunity. On the details:
Global Outlook:
- This week, the number of daily vaccinations administered globally surpassed 10mn for the first time (Table 1 column 6, Chart 1). This figure is up 39% WoW, and accordingly, 2.9% of the world’s population have now received at least one vaccination dose, up from 2.4% last week (Table 1 columns 2, 3 & 7).
Share of Population Vaccinated (Table 1 columns 2-5):
- Israel continues to lead on the vaccination front. It has vaccinated 60% of its population with at least one dose, the majority of which have also received a second dose (49.6%). Chile experienced the largest WoW rise in the share of its population that has received at least one dose, up 4ppt. Meanwhile, those at the bottom of the list, except Hong Kong and Mexico, are vaccinating at a relatively slower pace.
- The UK has chosen a relatively longer window between first and second doses (12 weeks). The country has vaccinated 33.7% of its population with only a single dose of either the Oxford/AstraZeneca or Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The US, on the other hand, has fully vaccinated a larger share of its population (11.5%). Both countries are vaccinating at rates well beyond the EU and global average (Chart 3).
Doses (Table 1 columns 6-7):
- The pace at which vaccinations are being administered in DM economies far outpaces EM economies (Chart 2). Across 22 DM economies, approx. 397 people per 100,000 population receive a dose every day, compared to 105 people across 25 EM countries. These figures are up 7% and 76% WoW, respectively. For DM economies, the US and UK are contributing significantly to a higher DM average (Chart 3).
- For EM, the large WoW increase is driven largely by Asia, where the Philippines (+246%), Hong Kong (+58%), Indonesia (+116%) and Singapore (+110%) recorded large improvements in vaccination rollouts. Across EMEA, the number of daily vaccinations per 100k fell 32% WoW, following declines in Hungary (-9%), Poland (-11%) and Russia (-62%) (Table 1 column 7).
- LATAM countries continue to expand vaccination programmes. Colombia (258%), Mexico (+176%), Argentina (+71%) all experienced significant WoW increases, as well as Chile (+21%), which has already vaccinated 26% of its population with at least one dose (Table 1, column 7).
Immunity (Table 1 columns 8-11):
- Immunity is gained either via the vaccine or via contracting the virus. The Czech Republic has suffered with high infection rates over the last six months, and an estimated 16% of its population have immunity from contracting the virus. Israel also recorded a large number of cases at the start of the year and around 61% of its population have either vaccine- or Covid-induced immunity. As a result, 80% of its population is forecast to have immunity by May 2021.
- Only a handful of countries will achieve the 80% target by the end of 2021, with the EU now forecast to reach it by March 2022. At the current rate, the UK and US will reach the same benchmark by June and July of this year, respectively. For the US, this estimate is up from August last week.
Sam van de Schootbrugge is a macro research economist taking a one year industrial break from his Ph.D. in Economics. He has 2 years of experience working in government and has an MPhil degree in Economic Research from the University of Cambridge. His research expertise are in international finance, macroeconomics and fiscal policy.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)