With the election now less than 24 hours away we provide a Macro Hive guide to everything you need to know. We include our Exclusives, Deep Dives, Podcasts and curated material over the past two months.
The US Presidential Election: The Possible Outcomes and Their Market Implications
George Goncalves and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut teamed up last week to provide a comprehensive take on the likely policy response around different US election outcomes.
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When Will We Know Who Won the US Election?
Mail-in voting shouldn’t cause significant delays in counting votes, writes John Tierney, with results likely late Tuesday or early Wednesday. He includes a very helpful table from the New York Times showing how every state will count mail-in and early voting, and the expected timing.
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With the election now less than 24 hours away we provide a Macro Hive guide to everything you need to know. We include our Exclusives, Deep Dives, Podcasts and curated material over the past two months.
The US Presidential Election: The Possible Outcomes and Their Market Implications
George Goncalves and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut teamed up last week to provide a comprehensive take on the likely policy response around different US election outcomes.
When Will We Know Who Won the US Election?
Mail-in voting shouldn’t cause significant delays in counting votes, writes John Tierney, with results likely late Tuesday or early Wednesday. He includes a very helpful table from the New York Times showing how every state will count mail-in and early voting, and the expected timing.
It is also worth highlighting this FT guide for election night. It has a nice chart of which swing states could be called for Biden or Trump on election night.
The US Third Wave: Which States Fare Worse Pre-Election?
Sam van de Schootbrugge went through the COVID stats by US state to look at how each is faring in the latest resurgence in cases.
Since he published the note on Friday the US has reached a new daily record of COVID cases at 97,000 nationwide. Key battleground states such as Ohio and Wisconsin were among those leading the increase.
Macro Hive Webinar: How Markets Trade Around US Elections, Chinese Yuan To Strengthen & Live Q&A
I gave my views on how markets generally trade around US elections in this 16 October Webinar.
What To Expect From Markets Under Different Election Outcomes?
Sam van de Schootbrugge used only historical performance to look at what to expect from markets under different 2020 US election outcomes.
US Elections And Stock Market Performance
Sam also reviewed recent literature on the financial impact of US presidential elections. Election years have historically been associated with higher equity performance, but in the current unprecedented environment, it is not certain a re-election of Trump would be a market positive.
Will Democrats Protest the Election Results?
I argued that the Democrats could in fact be more radical in reforming the US election system.
Biden And Trump Macroeconomic Convergence Points At Move To High Inflation Regime
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut compared the macroeconomic plans of the Biden and Trump campaigns and what they mean for inflation and Fed policy. See sees higher inflation as likely under both.
We discussed how Biden could continue Trump’s protectionist policies, how Trump deviates from Republican orthodoxy, how Trump’s break from democratic norms is unprecedented and the challenges of a Biden administration.
We also featured the following curated content:
Biden’s business tax plan: More complexity, questionable effect (PIIE, 8 min read)
Presidential Terms & Market Cycles (A Wealth of Common Sense,3 min read)
Who Will Win the US Presidential Election? (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)
3 Reasons to Expect Election Result Delays (Schwab, 3 min read)
How will the U.S. election impact international markets? (JP Morgan Asset Management, 2 min read)
Volatility, the vote and taking the long view (BlackRock, 2 min read)
Election 2020: What happens if we don’t know the results for a while? (Invesco, 3 min read)
Election 2020: What will happen if the capital gains tax is increased? (Invesco Blog, 4 min read)
U.S. Stock Performance During Past Presidential Elections (Janus Henderson, 4 min read)
Caroline Grady is Head of Emerging Markets Research at Macro Hive. Formerly, she was a Senior EM Economist at Deutsche Bank and a Leader Writer at the Financial Times.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)