With most major DM central banks already wrapping up for the year the remaining policy meetings are in EM. Turkey is the highlight with the CBRT expected to hike again on 24 December. Consensus stands at 150bps. In Asia, China and Thailand are expected to leave rates on hold. Fed minutes on 6 January will be in focus at the start of the year.
Data
The US data calendar is fairly busy over the coming weeks. The third estimate of Q3 GDP is due on 22 December, as is the Confidence Board survey and existing home sales. Claims data and durable goods are due later in the week. The following two weeks will see housing data, ISM, ADP and finally NFP on 8 January.
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Monetary Policy
With most major DM central banks already wrapping up for the year the remaining policy meetings are in EM. Turkey is the highlight with the CBRT expected to hike again on 24 December. Consensus stands at 150bps. In Asia, China and Thailand are expected to leave rates on hold. Fed minutes on 6 January will be in focus at the start of the year.
Data
The US data calendar is fairly busy over the coming weeks. The third estimate of Q3 GDP is due on 22 December, as is the Confidence Board survey and existing home sales. PCE, claims data and durable goods are due later in the week. The following two weeks will see housing data, ISM, ADP and finally NFP on 8 January.
Elsewhere the data calendar is light. PMIs will be released globally from 4 January (China’s official PMI on 31 December) and the only other notable releases in Europe are inflation, unemployment and consumer confidence.
In Asia, South Korea’s early estimates on exports and industrial profits out of China are the main releases next week. India’s Q3 C/A data should be released in the coming weeks and a handful of countries in Asia will inflation data scheduled. Brazil and Mexico also have CPI data due.
Events
Brexit talks will finally reach a conclusion.
Caroline Grady is Head of Emerging Markets Research at Macro Hive. Formerly, she was a Senior EM Economist at Deutsche Bank and a Leader Writer at the Financial Times.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)