Despite all the talk of an imminent US recession, most estimates suggest US growth is comfortably in the 2% zone. Nowcast estimates have Q3 GDP growth ranging from 1.8% to 2.6%, and the consensus forecast has it at 1.8% (see table). This follows the 2.1% print for Q2. On top of that, growth data surprises have been turning up for the US (second chart)…
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Despite all the talk of an imminent US recession, most estimates suggest US growth is comfortably in the 2% zone. Nowcast estimates have Q3 GDP growth ranging from 1.8% to 2.6%, and the consensus forecast has it at 1.8% (see table). This follows the 2.1% print for Q2. On top of that, growth data surprises have been turning up for the US (second chart).
The picture for Europe is less positive: both the UK and Germany saw negative prints for Q2. And data surprises at least for the Euro-area have been heading down. So if there is vulnerability in the global economy, it appears to be showing up in Europe rather than the US.
Chart 1: Nowcasting Estimates for US Growth (q/q ar)
Source: Maro Hive, Bloomberg, now-casting.com
Chart 2: Growth Data Surprises
Source: Macro Hive, Bloomberg
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
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