Age is one of the clearest contributing factors to COVID fatalities. Study after study is finding that the case fatality rate (CFR) for the elderly is much higher than younger segments of the population (Chart 1). For example, the CFR for those in their thirties is between 0.1% and 0.3% across a range of countries. Meanwhile, for those in their seventies, it is between 4.8% and 12.8%. That’s an order of magnitude higher – someone in their seventies is 16 to 116 times more likely die from COVID-19 than someone in their thirties.
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Age is one of the clearest contributing factors to COVID fatalities. Study after study is finding that the case fatality rate (CFR) for the elderly is much higher than younger segments of the population (Chart 1). For example, the CFR for those in their thirties is between 0.1% and 0.3% across a range of countries. Meanwhile, for those in their seventies, it is between 4.8% and 12.8%. That’s an order of magnitude higher – someone in their seventies is 16 to 116 times more likely die from COVID-19 than someone in their thirties.
Chart 1: Older Age Groups Suffer Higher Case Fatality Rates from COVID-19
Source: worldindata.org, Macro Hive
Some have argued that this factor can explain why places like Italy and other European countries have suffered higher death rates than elsewhere: Europe contains some of the oldest populations in the world. However, when you compare reported COVID deaths per capita to the share of the population over 70, it’s a struggle to find a strong relationship (Chart 2).
All you can see is that a bunch of European countries have very high death rates. But many of those countries have similar elderly populations and yet wildly different death rates. For example, both Switzerland and Belgium have 14% of their population over the age of 70, but Belgium has seen three times the number of COVID deaths per capita. And we shouldn’t forget that the country with the oldest population in the world, Japan, has one of the lowest death rates in the world.
Then if we just look at emerging markets and newly industrialised countries, which essentially removes these western-European countries, we find no relationship between demographics and reported death rates (Chart 3). Iran and Turkey have relatively young populations but have suffered high death rates, while Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan have older populations and suffered low death rates.
So, we have this paradox: within-country studies show a very strong relationship between age and death rates, while across-country studies show no relationship. This suggests there is no consistency across countries on how to measure deaths (or cases). Some countries are likely under-reporting, while others are over-reporting. So comparing countries is very hard. In the end, the best way may be to look at the aggressiveness of lockdown measures as a signal of the seriousness of the COVID problem, rather than reported statistics.
Chart 2: European Countries Have Highest COVID
Deaths per Capita Irrespective of Demographics
Source: UN, Macro Hive
Chart 3: There’s No Relationship Between Demographics
and Reported COVID Deaths in EM
Source: UN, Macro Hive
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)