In this prime tracker, we review the latest vaccine developments globally.
On the details:
- Global Outlook: This week, an average of 35.9mn vaccinations were administered globally every day, down 2% WoW (Chart 1). Meanwhile, the percentage of fully vaccinated people around the world (all ages) jumped up to 24.2%, after China updated its data. This comes as the global R-number continues to fall (Chart 2). By continent, Europe and the Americas have vaccinated over half of their populations with at least one dose, while just 4.4% of Africa’s population has received a dose (Chart 3). In all, 32.1% of the world’s population have now received a vaccination dose, up from 30.7% last week.
- Share of Population Vaccinated: China remains top, despite new data revising down last week’s estimates to 78.8% (Table 1). The country has now fully vaccinated over 50% of its population and administered a single dose to a further 25%. The big four European countries of Germany, Spain, Italy and France all rank towards the top of the list, and the wider EU area has now overtaken the US. Meanwhile, the UK has slipped down the list, as just 0.4% of its population came forward this week to receive their first dose – the second lowest among the countries we track.
- Doses: There has been a notable increase in vaccination doses administered in Latin American countries over the last week. Chile, Brazil and Mexico all experienced large WoW percentage increases in daily doses. On a population-adjusted basis, Brazil is administering the fourth highest amount of daily vaccinations globally (Chart 5). Malaysia, however, continues to lead the way. Lastly, there were also notable WoW daily vaccination increases in India, Russia, South Korea and Sweden.
- R-Number, Cases and Hospitalisations: The global R-number, a measure of secondary infections produced by a typical case, has fallen for a fourth consecutive week (Chart 2). Switzerland now has the highest R number, followed by Israel. Cases and hospitalisations in Israel have been rising in recent weeks, and the country is not far off its January peak (Chart 7). Israel, the UK and US all currently have a higher number of people in hospital with Covid-19 compared with exactly 12 months ago (Chart 8). Lastly, Thailand, South Africa, Mexico and Iran are all having a more deadly wave (deaths per case) than previously.
- Immunity: Chile and Singapore have the highest level of vaccination-induced Covid-19 immunity on our list. There are only four countries that have over 70% immunity, and Spain is the only European country that could reach 80% by the end of September if it continues to vaccinate at its current pace. Meanwhile, the drop in unvaccinated people coming forward in the UK means it could still be some time before it reaches 80%. Lastly, Malaysia is now forecast to vaccinate a large share of its population in 2021.