Asia | China | Politics & Geopolitics | US
We recently published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real-time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly reports, we will update the indicator to help us track growth. The latest data shows:
• Our overall short-term growth tracker has increased on the week, while the long-term growth tracker has moved sideways. We like to focus on the short-term measure as that tends to drive investor expectations more.
• This positive market shift comes in the face of increased US-China tensions, which suggests Chinese growth has not been dented yet.
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We recently published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real-time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly reports, we will update the indicator to help us track growth. The latest data shows:
- Our overall short-term growth tracker has increased on the week, while the long-term growth tracker has moved sideways (Chart 1). We like to focus on the short-term measure as that tends to drive investor expectations more.
- This positive market shift comes in the face of increased US-China tensions, which suggests Chinese growth has not been dented yet.
- Within the components, oil prices showed the biggest jump, which is partly driven by recent prices changes and partly base effects (Chart 4).
- We also saw increases in copper, iron ore and bond yields – this lends more credence to the overall increase in the China tracker score (Charts 2,3, 6).
- The Baltic Dry growth rate has started to decline, though (Chart 5).
- While the current growth rates in many of these markets are unlikely to be sustained, we would need to see more confirmations of reversals (such as in Baltic Dry) to make the call that the peak in short-term China growth momentum has been seen.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)