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So far our Grey Swans have featured pieces on markets, US politics, inflation, and a possible China-US war. Today, it’s all about China’s experiment with CBDCs and carbon taxes. Anton Tonev gives his take on what China’s CBDC could mean for the HKD. Dominique Dwor-Frecaut offers an alternative view based on the LionRock project. And finally, Karl Massey argues that carbon taxes could be on the agenda next year.
All pieces are free for all our members, and as a reminder Grey Swans are those low probably high impact events that few expect. I hope you enjoy them.
(1) 2021 Grey Swan #7: HKD Peg Breaks the Lower Band (2 min read) China’s success at implementing a feasible CBDC works to their advantage, and authorities could repeg the HKD to the CNH, resulting in HKD appreciation, writes Anton Tonev.
(Anton Tonev│ 10th December, 2020)
(2) 2021 Grey Swan #8: China’s CBDC First-Mover Advantage Weakens Dollar Dominance (3 min read) Dominique Dwor-Frecaut offers an alternative take on China’s CBDC experiment. The LionRock project, based on DLT, could speed up cross-border payments, provide a means to evade US sanctions, and weaken the global dominance of the dollar.
(Dominique Dwor-Frecaut│ 10th December, 2020)
(3) 2021 Grey Swan #9: Globalisation of Carbon Taxes (2 min read) Rapid legislation on carbon taxes might be in-store for 2021, particularly with Janet Yellen returning to public office. Her work on carbon taxes could have a snowball effect in implementing global climate change policies.
(Karl Massey│ 10th December, 2020)
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)