The NBER has officially called the US recession – it started in February. But I argue that we haven’t seen a recession (yet), instead, we’ve experienced an extended public holiday. A dovish Fed adds to the bearish dollar case and we have macro strategist John Butler, who continues his series on dollar weakness. We’re also keeping an eye on geopolitics with our new US-China Tension tracker. There’s a long list of measures from revoking student visas to de-listing Chinese companies. Economist, John Nugee, also returns with thoughts on what normality will look like after COVID.
Finally, we update our weekly election tracker highlighting the ongoing decline in Trump’s popularity and our regular COVID tracker. Please do take advantage of accessing our Prime content given the paywall is currently down!
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The NBER has officially called the US recession – it started in February. But I argue that we haven’t seen a recession (yet), instead, we’ve experienced an extended public holiday. A dovish Fed adds to the bearish dollar case and we have macro strategist John Butler, who continues his series on dollar weakness. We’re also keeping an eye on geopolitics with our new US-China Tension tracker. There’s a long list of measures from revoking student visas to de-listing Chinese companies. Economist, John Nugee, also returns with thoughts on what normality will look like after COVID.
Finally, we update our weekly election tracker highlighting the ongoing decline in Trump’s popularity and our regular COVID tracker. Please do take advantage of accessing our Prime content given the paywall is currently down!
Enjoy!
Bilal
There Is No Recession (2 min read) The IMF says it’s the worst recession since the Great Depression. No, the worst in 300 years, says the Bank of England. And now this week, the NBER officially called the US recession as starting in February – an unusual move because they tend to define recessions periods after the event not at the beginning. Yet while the collapse in economic activity is clear, does it really feel like a recession?
(Bilal Hafeez | 11th June, 2020)
The Dollar Has Peaked – Part II (9 min read) In part I of this series, I claimed that the US dollar shares some characteristics with risky assets, notwithstanding its reputation for being a safe haven. In this installment I elaborate on this view, one that I first developed back in 2000 while questioning the validity of traditional foreign exchange forecasting models…
(John Butler | 11th June, 2020)
China – US Tension Tracker Timeline (4 min read) Last month’s decision by China to impose a new security law on Hong Kong has triggered a new stage in US-China tensions. The US is set to revoke Hong Kong’s special status (which in practice has limited economic impact) and rhetoric over further sanctions has significantly stepped up…
(Caroline Grady, Felipe Espitia| 11th June, 2020)
COVID-19: Searching For Normality (6 min read) As the world increasingly eases its various lockdowns, first in Asia and Australasia and now with gathering momentum in Europe, we move from a simpler world of black and white into a much more interesting and challenging one of shades of grey…
(John Nugée | 11th June, 2020)
US Election Tracker – Trump’s Approval Ratings Continue To Slump President Trump’s approval rating has continued to slide. At 42% this is the lowest since late last year and, according to FiveThirtyEight, below the level where President’s have previously been re-elected. His handling of George Floyd’s death has been the driving factor in the current leg lower with less than one-third saying the approved in a recent CBS/YouGov poll.
(Bilal Hafeez | 11th June, 2020)
Global COVID-19 Tracker – DM Remains Low, EM Increasingly Polarized In the DM world, apart from Sweden which recorded 2% increases in both cases and deaths, no country saw any big surges. In the EM world, Pakistan, South Africa, and Argentina are in today’s pole position with 5% case increases. Pakistan recently saw nearly 100 MPs infected by COVID, while South Africa still remains the most affected country in Africa…
(Bilal Hafeez, Stefan Posea | 11th June, 2020)
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