Donald Trump may be focused on the Republican convention this week but it is the economy, alongside handling of COVID and attitudes on racial inequality that will matter for voters on 3 November. His approval ratings are up from the June lows and latest polls do not show any significant convention bounce for Joe Biden, but Biden maintains a fairly significant lead in the polls. Caroline Grady goes through the details.
Staying with American politics, Sam van de Schootbrugge reviews recent literature on the financial impact of US presidential elections. Election years have historically been associated with higher equity performance which suggests the current rally could continue. But in the current unprecedented environment it is not certain that a re-election of Trump would be a market positive.
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(total reading time: 2 mins)
Donald Trump may be focused on the Republican convention this week, but it is the economy alongside handling of COVID and attitudes on racial inequality, that will matter for voters on 3 November. His approval ratings are up from the June lows and latest polls do not show any significant convention bounce for Joe Biden, but Biden maintains a fairly significant lead in the polls. Caroline Grady goes through the details.
Staying with American politics, Sam van de Schootbrugge reviews recent literature on the financial impact of US presidential elections. Election years have historically been associated with higher equity performance, which suggests the current rally could continue. But in the current unprecedented environment, it is not certain that a re-election of Trump would be a market positive.
Enjoy!
Bilal
Economy, Not Conventions, Matter For Trump (3 min read) Despite many firsts – the first virtual convention, the first woman of colour on a presidential ticket (Kamala Harris) – the Democratic National Convention provided no new insights into the likely outcome of the election. Instead, the perceived handling of the virus, the extent of the economic recovery and attitudes on racial inequality will be the deciding factors.
(Bilal Hafeez, Caroline Grady │ 26th August, 2020)
US Elections And Stock Market Performance (11 min read) With the US presidential elections a little over two months away, what can we infer from the existing body of literature around US presidential elections and stock market performance? I’ve distilled some of the thoughts of academics, influential finance experts and leading political research organisations below.
(Sam van de Schootbrugge │ 26th August, 2020)
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