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(1) Will We See Deflation in the US in 2022? (1 min read)
I construct three scenarios to show why headline inflation may struggle to stay above 2% next year and may even tip into deflation. Bottom line, investors should be wary of reading too closely into recent high inflation prints.
(Bilal Hafeez│29th June, 2021)
(2) Podcast Transcript: Charles Goodhart on Money Printing, Inflation and Ageing (31 min read)
We published the transcript of our podcast with Charles Goodhart CBE, Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance at the LSE, and former Chief Advisor for the BoE. You can listen to the podcast here.
(Bilal Hafeez│29th June, 2021)
Noise in Expectations: Evidence from Analyst Forecasts (NBER, 45 page read)
Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs (NBER, 57 page read)
Voting rights rotation on the US Federal Open Market Committee affects the behaviour of Reserve Bank presidents and matters to financial markets (VoxEU, 5 min read)