Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
This week’s labor market data and today’s GDP suggest limited bounce in Q4 followed by a hit from omicron to the labor market.
Labor market: continued softness but no collapse. Today’s initial claims are down relative to last week while Tuesday’s Dec. Conference Board index of ‘jobs plentiful minus jobs hard to get’ was unchanged on Nov. This makes the BBG consensus for payrolls next week of about 190k seem reasonable. At the same time we are likely to see an omicron related hit to participation, which could see the unemployment rate dip further (BBG consensus expects unchanged participation and unemployment).
This week’s labor market data and today’s GDP suggest limited bounce in Q4 followed by a hit from omicron to the labor market.
Labor market: continued softness but no collapse. Today’s initial claims are down relative to last week while Tuesday’s Dec. Conference Board index of ‘jobs plentiful minus jobs hard to get’ was unchanged on Nov. This makes the BBG consensus for payrolls next week of about 190k seem reasonable. At the same time we are likely to see an omicron related hit to participation, which could see the unemployment rate dip further (BBG consensus expects unchanged participation and unemployment).
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