One Hundred Deep Dives, And Inflation Tops The Charts

One of our most iconic offerings at Macro Hive is the weekly Deep Dive. For it, we review academic papers that are at the frontier of research and distil their main findings in a digestible way. Since starting, we have produced 100+ Deep Dives, providing a rich archive of research from the best journals in the macro-finance space. Below, we have our Top 5 Deep Dives of 2021 and of all time.

Our Top 5 Most Read Deep Dives of 2021

1. Be Careful, Inflation Expectations Are Not Anchored!
   Following our Macro Hive Inflation Debate, we looked at the inflation expectations of US firms. The results are quite concerning and highlight the importance of Fed communication.
2. What Is Driving Chinese Growth?
   Official Chinese GDP growth is notoriously unreliable. In this Deep Dive, we looked at an alternative measure, published by the Bank of Finland, that aggregates provincial data. We’ve included a link to the dataset.
3. What Determines How Wealthy You Become?
   A very popular piece that studied the origins of wealth. It shows how the top 1% make their fortunes and why taxing inheritance is largely ineffective.
4. Can Optimised Portfolios Deliver What They Promise?
   Portfolio allocation decisions based on mean-variance analysis come with a number of pitfalls. In this Deep Dive, we reviewed an academic paper that explains how to improve portfolio performance.
5. Can Big Data Help Forecast House Prices?
   Here, we explained which macroeconomic and financial variables are best at predicting US house prices.

Our Top 5 Most Read Deep Dives of All Time

1. Which FX Valuation Models Work Best?
   With two decades worth of research on exchange rates, I was intrigued by an ECB paper looking at which FX valuation models work best. Their results confirm the work I’ve done on valuations – that simplicity is best.
2. Why Should Traders And Researchers Learn Python?
   We turn to programming for this Deep Dive. Saeed Amen, expert on systematic trading and founder of Cuemacro, explains the benefits of Python for traders and researchers.
3. Rethinking Stock Valuations Using A Bond Dividend Approach
   This Deep Dive looks at the long-term underperformance of equities versus bonds. Specifically, it is found that a long duration bond portfolio can replicate the returns of equities (and its dividend strips).
4. Limitless Potential – Is DeFi Coming Of Age?
   The crypto space has gone bonkers during the pandemic. We explained everything an investor needs to know about the increasingly popular Decentralised Finance world – from yield farming to gas fees.
5. An Economic Framework To Value Bitcoin
   Valuing bitcoin is more of an art than a science, but a 2020 paper published in a leading journal provides an easy-to-understand framework in which to do so.

The Full List of 2021 Deep Dives

1. Which Jobs Will AI Take Over?
2. What Determines How Wealthy You Become?
3. The Best Methods For Measuring Cryptocurrency Market Liquidity
4. US-China Trade Relations: Which Equity Markets Are Most Affected?
5. Beware of Trading on Your Smartphone
6. Successful Start-Ups Build Strong Founding Teams
7. What Is Driving Chinese Growth?
8. Can the S&P 500 Help Forecast Changes in the USD?
9. Do ESG Ratings Affect IPO Valuations?
10. Household and Corporate Debt: Covid vs the GFC
11. When Can You Trust a Forecaster?
12. How Valuable Is ‘Green’ Investment?
13. Can Big Data Help Forecast House Prices?
14. How Commodity Prices Can Predict Banking Crises
15. Can Optimised Portfolios Deliver What They Promise?
16. Who Will Be Europe’s Biggest Carbon Tax Loser?
17. How Costly Are Contractions In Bank Credit?
18. Will Working From Home Outlast the Pandemic?
19. Predicting Economic Downturns Using US Treasury Futures
20. Friedman’s Plucking Model Is Back in Vogue, and Rightly So!
21. How Have Global Capital Flows Changed?
22. Be Careful, Inflation Expectations Are Not Anchored!
23. The End of Financial Districts?