Monetary Policy & Inflation | Rates | US
Summary
-
- I expect a 50bp hike and an increase in the SEP 2023 dot from 4.6% to 5.4% in the September SEP.
-
- I will look for an increase in the SEP real FFR trajectory as a sign the Fed is serious about controlling inflation.
Market Implications
-
- The market underestimates the terminal FFR and has deeply unrealistic expectations of rate cuts in 2023.
Summary
-
- I expect a 50bp hike and an increase in the SEP 2023 dot from 4.6% to 5.4% in the September SEP.
-
- I will look for an increase in the SEP real FFR trajectory as a sign the Fed is serious about controlling inflation.
Market Implications
-
- The market underestimates the terminal FFR and has deeply unrealistic expectations of rate cuts in 2023.
Subscribe to Macro Hive Professional to read this article
and enjoy exclusive professional features such as in-depth analysis, insightful op-eds, and more.
Already have Macro Hive Professional account? Log in