This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.
Global Slowdown
Consensus Growth Expectations
US Peak Growth Expected This Quarter
Biggest Jump In Goods Consumption In History
More Context On Retail Sales
Weak Government Spending, But Huge Transfers
Massive Fiscal Spending in US
Fiscal Impulse Negative Across DM In 2022
Investment Boom
China Economy Slowing
Surge in IP and Exports
Weak Domestic Demand
US PMIs At Extreme Highs
Stocks Trade Poorly After ISM Peaks
Markets Are Turning On the Growth Downside
Inflation Illusion
Pockets Of Goods Inflation
COVID (Negative) Shock To Services Prices
Private Sector Expectations Are Benign
Watch Base Effects In 2022
Fed Balance Sheet Expansion Not Reaching Real Economy
Commodity Inflation Is Not Like 1970s
ISM Prices Paid Overstates Inflation Risk
Markets Fade Peaks in Prices Paid
Inflation Is High Relative To Past Centuries
China Is Seeing Low Inflation Since Mid-1990s
Re-Opened Economies Not Seeing Inflation
Most G10 Seeing Falling Inflation
Mixed Picture In EM
Comparing US and EU Rates
Dollar and Volatility
Dollar Cycle Is Turning Lower
Bad Combination of Trade Deficit and Low Yields
But USD Is Safe Haven Play
FX Volatility Is Low
Rates Developments Impact FX Vol
JPY and GBP Skew Stand Out
Climate Change
Biggest Impact Is For EM
Past Decade CO-2 Increases Due to EM
US Heavy Users and China Inefficient
US and UK Economy Decoupled From CO-2
India and China Economies Still Linked to CO-2
ESG Ratings Disagree
EU Introducing New Standards: SFDR
- Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR)
- The SFDR became applicable on 10 March 2021.
- Its scope captures financial market participants and financial advisers operating in the EU.
- Will affect non-EU investment managers who market into EU and to non-EU investment managers that provide portfolio services to EU firms.
- It sets specific rules for how and what sustainability-related information they need to disclose.
- Entity-level disclosures – e.g. how an entity integrates sustainability risks in its investment decision‐making process or financial advice;
- Product-level disclosures – e.g. For ‘Article 8’ products that promote ‘Environmental’ or ‘Social’ characteristics, there must be additional information on how these are met, including disclosure on the degree of Taxonomy alignment of underlying economic activities.
Demographics
Major Economies Are Ageing
Young Matter For Inflation: Japan Case
Demographics Are Inflationary For Germany
No Young Pressure For US Inflation
And Ditto For China
Current Portfolio
(The commentary contained in the presentation does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs)